lake oswego v. south medford and eugene and university of oregon and jesuit and jefferson

In fewer than five hours these two teams will tip off for the Oregon 4A Boys Basketball championship. Rather than waiting for the game to end to give my analysis, I would like to give some "pre-game" observations about these two teams, based on their semi-final performance on "Mac Court" (University of Oregon) last evening. My conclusion is that even though SM has a more impressive array of basketball talent than LO, Kevin Love (LO's center) is so dominant, and his desire so strong, that he will power his team to victory tonight.

Getting to the Finals

Perennial threats Jefferson and Jesuit were the other two semi-final participants last evening. Jefferson and LO tangled at 6:30, while Jesuit and SM tipped off at 8:15. The latter game began about 8:30, however, since an undisciplined Jefferson team kept fouling LO well after the game was out of reach, thus delaying the next game. For a quarter and a half, the Jeff/LO contest was a contest. Jeff's outside shooting was effective, LO played a varied offense (with McLaughlin playing a big role) and Love cleaned up every rebound at the defensive end. His performance under the boards was so dominant that it often seemed that he was the only person within 10 feet of the basket going for a rebound. Jeff fell off precipitously in the 2nd quarter, and then it became painfully clear to all that Jeff was not a team that ran plays, that could take the ball to the hoop, that knew how to pass, screen and other basketball fundamentals, but that it simply would try to gun balls from long-distance. When Jeff had dominant teams in 2000 and 2001 many attributed it to Coach Marshall Haskins' genius, though their performance in 2006 showed, to me at least, that Haskins had been riding the wave of five outstanding basketball players from those days (Brandon Brooks, Jon Tinnon, Antone Jarrell, Aaron Miles and Michael Lee) rather than building up team fundamentals.

Contrast this with the Jesuit story. Coach Gene Potter has assembled a group of so-so athletes in the past several years, apart from Mike Dunleavy, Michael McGrain and the amazing Tarver brothers, and melded them into a perennial state championship threat. In 1999 they won the title; in 2000 they lost to Jefferson in a semifinal; in 2001 they were blown out by Churchill (a truly outstanding team) in an earlier round; in 2002 they should have won the state championship but were beaten by Tigard in overtime; in 2005 they won the championship again. Most thought that they would beat South Medford last night, especially after leading for almost the entire game and not falling behind in regulation play, but a gutsy performance by SM and a buzzer-beater shot by Myles Daley in overtime sunk the Crusaders 70-69. The result will therefore not be a repeat of the 2005 matchup, where Jesuit came from behind to nip LO in the 4th quarter, but it will be a battle between teams with two of the best high school players in the country: SM's Kyle Singler and LO's Kevin Love.

Singler and Love

Only Seth Tarver of Jesuit comes close to the talent of Singler of SM or Love of LO. In a head-to-head matchup with Singler for about 1/2 of the game last night, Tarver scored 25 to Singler's 26. Both were the focus of their team's efforts, though SM had more offensive weapons than Jesuit. How will LO and SM stack up against each other tonight? If we look at the team throught the talent of their respective stars we get the following: (1) Singler has a more varied offensive game (outside shooting, driving the lane, crashing the boards, pull-up jumpers) than Love. (2) Love's mere presence defines the shape of the game while Singler seemingly fits into the flow of the game. What I mean by this comment is that Love is such a towering presence underneath that teams are forced to double and triple-team him in order for him not to get 40 points or more a game--while fouling out the opponent's big men. This leaves Thomas and Spada open on the perimeter for LO, and when they are hot from the outside, LO is unbeatable.

But SM just may have the weapon to neutralize or, at least, make Love appear human. Well, it is a series of weapons, and it consists of 4 starters 6'7'' or taller, with one of them being a true post player, Johnson, who managed to acquit himself very well against Jesuit last evening. That is, with two 6'7'' guys hanging around him, Love may have real difficulty getting the ball, and when he kicks it out to the smaller guys, they may be covered like blankets by the other SM talent. Thus, SM may be in a position where they can use their height and board-crashing ability to their advantage against LO. One thing, however, that is ignored in Love's game is his outside shooting ability. I have noticed, in the three games I have seen him play, that he will sort of "test" himself from the three-point line early in the game. If he sinks it from there, then he will feel free to make that an additional weapon for his team. But, in both games where I observed him, he has missed his outside shots; rather than attempting later 3-pointers, he passes them off to others and gets under the hoop.

Conclusion

One factor that weighs in LO's favor, however, is that they have been to the finals, in fabled (or is it "foibled"?) Mac Court, in 2005. They have heard the crowds, they know the emotions, they saw where they made bad mistakes against Jesuit in 2005. In contrast, SM looked like it was disoriented and disorganized in the first half against Jesuit--their first real challenge in a long time, and their first opponent of quality in the state tournament. I am betting, therefore, that LO will still be able to capitalize on SM's inexperience at State, and that Love's energy and drive will carry his team to a narrow victory tonight. I am guessing--64-61. And, I am leaving soon to find out.

[P.S. The final score was actually 59-57 in LO's favor. Way off, once again.]

1754